TIMEstory on Roe v. Wade possibly being overturned this summer – according
to a leaked USSC draft opinion exposed by Politico on May 2 with this headline
(formatted to fit the blog):
“States Set to Ban (or Keep) Abortion if Roe v. Wade is Overturned”
If the
Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that established a
constitutional right to abortion in America, it would reshape women’s
reproductive rights across the country.
A leaked draft of a
Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization,
first *reported by Politico Monday evening (May 2), would
overturn Roe and return decisions about the legality of abortion to
the states. Many states are considering or have passed so-called trigger laws,
and other measures, that would rapidly curtail or outlaw abortion in the wake
of such a ruling.
*What toKnow About the Leaked Supreme Court Draft.
Noteworthy: No draft decision in the modern history of
the court has been disclosed publicly while a case was still pending. The
unprecedented revelation is bound to intensify the debate over what was already
the most controversial case on the docket this term.
The Court is expected to issue its final ruling in Dobbs by
the end of June, but the publication of the draft, and Politico’s reporting
that a majority of Supreme Court justices support overturning Roe, has
focused attention on where abortion rights are most likely to be rolled back.
Justice Samuel Alito writes in the draft document lead sentence: “We
hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled.”
In addition to Roe, the 1992 case of Planned
Parenthood v. Casey has upheld the constitutional right to abortion, and
together they prohibited states from banning abortion before about 24 weeks,
when a fetus is viable outside the womb.
The Supreme Court
confirmed on Tuesday (May 3) that the leaked draft opinion is authentic.
They also noted that the
Court’s decision in the case, which was argued December 1, is not final and
could still change before the justices ultimately issue their ruling.
Politicians and activists on both sides of the abortion
debate reacted quickly to the leak, launching intense preparations for a likely
new era of abortion in the U.S.
There is no federal law protecting abortion, so rolling back Roe would create a starker patchwork of legality and access across the country.
Some
conservative-led states would quickly ban abortion, while others would push to
restrict abortion in various ways and other, liberal-led states would protect
abortion rights. (Refer to the map above).
If the Supreme Court does overturn Roe, abortion would
be outlawed in about half of the states. Most of this would happen through
“trigger laws,” which are designed to take effect shortly after the Court
strikes down Roe.
Other states have laws on the books that were passed before
1973 that they could try to bring back, while still others have passed abortion
restrictions in recent years that were blocked by courts, but which they could
try to implement once Roe is no longer the law of the land.
Because of the varied state laws at play, there are several different forecasts of how many states will ban abortion. The Guttmacher Institute, a research firm that tracks abortion policy and supports reproductive rights, has estimated that 27 states are likely to ban abortion once Roe is gone.
Those states are: AL; AZ; AR; FL; GA; ID; IN; IA; KY; LA; MI: MS;
MO; MT; NE; NC; ND; OH; OK; SC; SD; TN;
TX, UT; WV; WI; and WY.
The Center for Reproductive Rights, a legal group that fights abortion restrictions and tracks state laws, counts 25 states as likely to ban abortion that includes PA; but not FL; IA; and MT.
Once the Court issues its final ruling, changes could start
happening quickly. Of the 13 states with trigger laws, those in KY; LA; and SD appear
set to take effect immediately.
In AR; MS; MO; ND; OK; UT; an WY state AG’s or other
officials must take action to put the bans in effect.
In ID; TN: and TX the laws would take effect 30 days after
the Court strikes down Roe.
Elizabeth Nash, who tracks state abortion policy for
Guttmacher says the leaked opinion draft could speed this process and even though
the leaked opinion is not final, it allows states to line up their legal
arguments in favor of implementing other abortion restrictions.
Ms. Nash continued:
“Everyone was expecting that Roe would be substantially damaged,
perhaps overturned. Now we see where the court is going, which means that there’s
now a roadmap for how attorneys general are going to respond in these conservative
states.”
Six states have bans on abortion that were passed before 1973 and have not been repealed. And a number of others have passed laws in the last few years that courts have blocked because they were in violation of Roe v. Wade. If that precedent goes away, the states can try to bring those laws back into effect.
Meanwhile, CA; CO: and CT have passed laws protecting abortion in their state laws, and the glimpse at the Supreme Court’s draft decision could encourage more liberal states to add extra protections.
My 2 Cents: This by any measurement is a huge historical issue, and
the clock is running out.
So, will this Supreme
Court stick by some of their previous remarks and say: “We are not political
and don’t intend to be (sic).”
Or, will they disprove everything
now by pleasing the hardcore GOP rightwing-run states?
Tick tock Mr. and Mrs.
High Court Justices. The clock is ticking down to midnight all across the land.
Will you respect and stand
with women and their right to choose their own health care, or will you hold to
the harsh conservative dogma and slap them down as third class citizens.
If you do choose to go
that route, then clearly by all standards you would be ruling against the vast
majority of this nation who stand by Roe v. Wade and even a larger number that
used to hold the high court in high esteem, but no longer, thus shame on you.
Thanks for stopping by.
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