Players: Methods, Actions, Inactions, Stalemate, Victory
(Winners
and Losers)
Obama 2016: Dilemma, Quandary, Predicament, Conundrum,
(Take your pick)
A good time
to review 2016 election history.
Background:
In early August
2016, an envelope with extraordinary handling restrictions arrived at the White
House. Sent by courier from the CIA, it carried “Eyes Only” instructions that its contents be shown to just four
people: President Barack Obama and three senior aides.
The White
House debated various options to punish Russia, but facing obstacles and
potential risks, it ultimately failed to exact a heavy toll on the Kremlin for
its election interference.
Inside that
envelope was an intelligence bombshell, a report drawn from sourcing deep
inside the Russian government that detailed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
direct involvement in a cyber campaign to disrupt and discredit the U.S.
presidential race.
But it went further. The intelligence captured Putin’s
specific instructions on the operation’s audacious objectives — defeat or at
least damage the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, and help elect her
opponent, Donald Trump.
In August 2016,
President Barack Obama received a highly classified CIA report with evidence of
Russian President Vladimir Putin's direct involvement in the cyber-attacks that
were meant to interfere with the 2016 presidential election designed to hurt Hillary
Clinton and help Donald Trump (The
Washington Post explosive report) (extract
as background above).
Why it matters: The Obama administration's
debate over what to do highlighted the challenge in dealing with such a politically
charged issue, which was central to the election and has remained central to
the Trump presidency.
Responses:
· Obama instructed aides to evaluate how the election system could be most vulnerable
and to get agencies to back up the CIA's discovery.
· CIA Director John Brennan called the head of Russia's security agency and warned him about
interfering in the election.
· HSD Secretary Jeh Johnson attempted to secure the voting system, although
some state officials refused.
· Intelligence agency leaders approached Congress with their conclusions: Democrats wanted the information to go
public. Republicans felt that
revealing the information would help the Russians' attempt to destroy
confidence in the electoral process. Senate Majority
Leader Mitch McConnell even questioned the White House's conclusions based on
the intelligence.
· The CIA statement about Russia's interference was released on October 7, 2016, but Obama
did not add his signature.
· FBI Director James Comey also decided at the last minute to remove his name from the
statement as he felt it was too close to the election for the FBI to get
involved.
Retaliation:
For 5
months, Obama deliberated various plans of action against Russia. It wasn't
until December, a month after the unexpected election results, that he approved
sanctions against Russia.
He also
approved a secret plan to plant cyber weapons in Russia's infrastructure, the
Post reported for the first time, but it
was up to President Trump to oversee that the plan was carried out.
Too little, too late: The Post points out that
despite the clear evidence of Russia's crime, “because of the divergent ways Obama and Trump have handled the matter,
Moscow appears unlikely to face proportionate consequences.”
Although those
close to both Obama and Trump defend their leader's actions, one former senior
Obama administration official involved in the deliberations on Russia told the
Post:
“It is the
hardest thing about my entire time in government to defend. I feel like we sort
of choked.”
Irony: The Post published the story
only a few hours after Donald Trump tweeted: “By the way, if Russia was working so hard on the 2016 Election, it all
took place during the Obama Admin. Why didn't they stop them?”
Go
deeper with a full timeline and more details in the Washington
Post story.
My 2 cents: Obama’s team was between a rock and hard
place:
1. Announce the CIA report – that could have shown favoritism
to Hillary an anti-Trump stance with FOX and Talk Radio and Trump Ads all
calling it “bogus or fake or hoax report.”
2. Just do
nothing openly, but work behind the scenes (see efforts above which they did).
So, did the Putin ploy work? That is nearly impossible
to measure w/o asking every single voter: “Did Ads, Bots, and Social Media
influenced your vote, or was it just Trump’s style (e.g., his personal insults,
name-calling, lies, attacks, and such)?”
We will never know.
Thanks for stopping and reviewing this historical
timeline and then look at where we are today and the road we have traveled these
past two plus years.
Scary isn’t it? Yes, it is.
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