Singapore Denuclearization Summit: Donald J. Trump Vis-à-Vis Kim Jong-un

Best Outcome World Hopes For 

Outcome the World Does Not Want

Part from a fine article from NY Times by Nicholas Kristof on the North Korean nuclear weapons question and how to deal with verification of “denuclearization.”

First a bit of history with some of my emphasis and editing to fit the blog (but original article is intact above):

Right now, White House aide Larry Kudlow boasted on Fox News (always on FOX, right?): “North Korea coming to the negotiating table has a lot do with President Trump’s very firm stand.” 

Kristof says: “Poppycock” and I totally agree:

North Korea has been eager for decades to meet with an American president; it’s just that no previous president agreed for fear of legitimizing the regime. It’s actually Trump who has made stunning compromises — holding a get-acquainted summit with Kim without any prospect of near-term denuclearization.

Key point and guess who the real hero is (Hint: It is not Trump which is sure to tick him off) — that would be South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who shrewdly used the Olympics to kick-start the peace process.  Trump and Kim won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize, but if the peace process were to survive, Moon would be the single worthy recipient. (I totally, 100% agree with that premise).

For decades, especially after Bill Clinton’s 1994 “Agreed Framework” with North Korea, recall it was conservative Republicans who were the spoilers on any nuclear deals with North Korea and Iran alike – due to dislike them and Clinton, too.

(I note: How soon we forget those details, um – selective memories I guess). 

Trump’s new found pragmatism is infinitely preferable to the threat of nuclear war that used to hang over all of us. It is also mystifying to see Democrats carping about any possible North Korea deal. 

For example, seven Democratic senators, including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), warned in a letter to Trump this week: “Any deal that explicitly or implicitly gives North Korea sanctions relief for anything other than the verifiable performance of its obligations to dismantle its nuclear and missile arsenal is a bad deal.”

The letter also insisted on that “anywhere, anytime inspections” of suspected North Korean nuclear sites, as well as those linked to its chemical and biological warfare programs be part of any deal.

Possible impact: It is almost unimaginable that North Korea will allow such intrusive inspections — in fact, any country would resist having another nation come in and poke around its military bases, underground bomb shelters, and border fortifications. So these Democrats are essentially saying that no plausible deal will pass muster.

(I note: Odd, there is no mention of IAEA or UN inspectors as the approved and non-U.S. entity which is the norm in these cases like in Iran for such inspections. But, in the case of Iran, no one, especially the hard line GOPers seemed to believe or trust the IAEA inspections and reports that have said that Iran was in compliance with the agreement, and therein lies this concern about how and by whom to conduct “trust and verify” inspections).

Says Joel Wit, a North Korea watcher at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC: “The Democrats have gone overboard in the conditions they listed in the letter. If they’re serious, it’s a prescription for failure because no one could achieve the conditions they seek. So, maybe it’s payback for everything they were dealt in the Iran deal.”

My 2 Cents: I’m not so sure Trump can pull off what he thinks he can pull off … that is to get Kim to agree to all his terms on his terms.

Key related and a critical point from Trump statement in Roll Call. 

Wow - what arrogance - cite this from Trump: He says he has not been cramming for the summit, and yet signaled he might cancel it again while speaking alongside Japanese PM Shinzo Abe in the Oval Office adding: 

“I think I’m very well prepared. I don’t think I have to prepare that much. It’s about attitude. It’s about willingness to get things done. But I think I’ve been prepared for this summit for a long time.”

First, we need to hold our collective breath and hope for the best outcome to see all the elements in writing from both sides agreed on in Singapore - unlikely, but as a follow-up agreement - and Congress must come on board as they speak for the entire public not just fall in line with Trump as in the recent past. 

Both sides will have to give and take – all deals do and deals cannot be lopsided or one-sided. Whether Kim or Trump is that flexible remains to be seen.

So, stay tuned – a truly historical moment for sure– let’s hope the outcome is positive and not just another routine NK stunt or Trump PR ploy. The issue at hand is too big for stunts and ploys from either side, or for some sore of “con, either" for that matter.

Thanks for stopping by.