Q&A Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Is Trump Outperforming Obama When It Comes to Jobs

Run the Chart and Numbers, Please

(No, Mr. Trump, not “Fake News”) 

The headline: Is Trump outperforming Barack Obama when it comes to job creation?

Trump thinks so with his tweet: “JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!” 

That was after the latest monthly numbers showed employers created 224,000 new jobs in June. But job growth has actually slowed under Trump. But, this isn’t necessarily a problem.

The economy has created jobs consistently since 2010, with the peak coming in 2014, when companies created 3 million jobs, or 251,000 per month. 

During the last 12 months, employers created 2.3 million jobs, or 192,000 per month. 

During the first six months of 2019, the pace has slowed further to 172,000 new jobs per month.

Partisans engage in mortal combat over who deserves more credit for the solid labor market —Trump, or President Obama before him. It’s a silly argument. 

What the numbers show is a recovery gradually gaining steam after the devastating recession that ran from 2007 to 2009. There’s no reason to think presidential policies (or character) have had much to do with the trend lines.

Trump inherited that recovery from Obama, benefiting from the trend in some ways. Income growth under Trump has been stronger than it was under Obama, peaking at 3.3% last year. 

The highest increase in earnings under Obama was 2.7% in 2016, the last year of his presidency.

Trump may think his policies, such as to deregulate everything, and push the 2017 tax cuts, are responsible for stronger income growth. But it’s more likely incomes are growing as labor market slack tightens up and workers become harder to find. That’s what normally happens as a recovery matures.

Economists have actually been surprised it took as long as it did to get back to 3% earnings growth.

The slowdown in job growth is another normal development. Part of the reason is probably a shortage of workers with the skills some employers need, which typically happens late in a business-cycle expansion.

Job growth could slow further and still be fine: Economists say 100,000 new jobs per month is enough to keep up with population growth and keep a recovery humming.

My 2 cents: Let’s face it: “It's the economy, stupid.” 

(Coined phrase by James Carville, campaign strategist for Bill Clinton in 1992 — still applicable today). 

Trump will spin anything his way to may it look like it’s his doing – never undoing, and BTW, Barack Obama is Trump’s mortal enemy, and he has been since Trump ginned up that “birther, born in Kenya, he’s not really an American Obama slamming stunt” back in Trump’s heyday.

Trump just can’t let go or allow Obama’s record on anything to shine on or over or past him. He will twist things to show Obama in a poor light as Trump seeks the spotlight, center stage.

Sad, but patently true and as clear as a bell.

Thanks for stopping by.