Monday, September 9, 2019

Trump's Terrible Tariffs: U.S. Consumer Impact Worse Than He Said (Not Surprised)

Trump's post-office plans: Big announcement 
(Bye, bye America: I'm moving to China)

T-3 updated: Good morning Mr. and Mrs. American Consumer – all of us, I guess. From “our” President and his T-3 policy (Trump’s Terrible Tariffs) – more attention grabbing headlines from here:

Trump tariffs set to cost you $2,000 in 2020 research finds

Trump’s tariffs are expected to cost American households more than $2,000 per year in 2020, according to a recent report from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).

The Arlington-based nonprofit — which looked at the effect of tariffs on the overall economy and consumers — estimated that by the end of 2019, the trade duties imposed by Trump: “[…] will have cost the average household $1,315 over a two-year period,” adding:When adding the tariffs in effect and the tariffs set to go into effect by the end of 2019, the costs of the tariffs to consumers will be $259.2 billion. That is, the tariffs will cost the average household $2,031 per year, and will be recurring so long as the tariffs stay in effect.”

Early on I asked a simple question when all this silly-ass game from Trump started: Who pays for Trump’s tariffs?”

I then gave a hint and well-known definition:Tariff (noun): A tax or duty paid on a particular class of imports or exports by the consumer not the producer or manufacturer.”

Also related to this same subject from my earlier post.

Example of another “greatest deal-maker ever Donald” failure wherein he makes us and himself, not China – the target, hugely with this story: Trump caves on tariffs – he can’t pull the trigger on China increases. 

Details of that: Trump delayed the new tariffs on a large batch of Chinese imports that were supposed to go into effect September 1, and exempted some other Chinese imports altogether. This de-escalates Trump’s trade war with China. 

It also amounts to a tacit acknowledgement that his tariffs “might” hurt American consumers “too much.” (No kidding – nice you finally woke up)!!!

Laptops, cellphones, gaming consoles, and other products imported from China won’t face a 10% tariff on September 1, as expected. The Trump administration says the 10% tariffs on those products will go into effect on December 15, instead (just in time for the Christmas shopping season, eh, Mr. Donald the Grinch?).

But the delay reveals an unwillingness by Trump to raise the cost of products many Americans find essential, suggesting he’s bluffing about ever imposing such a tariff.

The 10% tariff will still land on September 1 on these imports from China: clothing, footwear, and toys, but U.S. importers can apply for tariff exemptions (but will they)?

In case you have lost track, Trump has now imposed 25% tariffs on about $250 billion worth of intermediate goods imported from China, which are components most consumers never see.

The new 10% tariff on all remaining Chinese imports on August 1, as talks on a trade deal with China broke down are mostly finished consumer products, therefore consumers would likely notice higher prices reflecting the added tariff, which is a new added tax.

China called Trump’s bluff which caused Trump to partially reverse that new 10% tariff, and without any corresponding concession from China. 

China also refused to fulfill a pledge to start buying more U.S. farm products, for instance and now more and more U.S. farmers are literally going bankrupt and foreclosing and worse.

Noteworthy: China allowed its currency (the Yuan) to fall in value more than usual, which makes Chinese exports to other countries cheaper and boosts domestic sales.

It is possible China has decided to bear the pain of Trump’s trade war for the next 15 months and hope Trump loses the 2020 election.

This all leaves Trump, who fancies himself as the ultimate master dealmaker, hardline negotiating with only himself. Summary of that:
  • Trump’s initial threat on consumer imports from China was to levy a 25% tariff.
  • Trump, when it came time to do it, he lowered it to 10%.
  • Now it’s 10% on just half of those products, rather than all of them.
  • Plus, there’s an appeals process for eliminating the entire tariff.

My 2 cents and score board: China: A bunch – Trump: Zip, zero, nada, nil, goose egg (just egg on his smug face). 

But, this will only get worse – bet it – just don’t bet too much (except maybe a few bucks on China for being tougher than Trump – oops).

Finally, the sub-headline to this story is:

These Trump tariffs “eliminate all remaining economic gains from the administration’s deregulation actions”

So, Trump’s bragging rights about his super economic genius plan are also down the proverbial drain or swamp (take your pick).

Thanks for stopping by. 

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